John Tierny posted a story to his blog last week that related to an interview I saw on, of all places, The Colbert Report. In it, Tierny reports on the study by UCLA geography professor Thomas W. Gillespie in which he applies two aspects of the island biogeographic theory to posit theories on where Osama Bin Ladin may be hiding. The concept is that, like wildlife, a human dispersion pattern will decline exponentially the farther you look from the point of origin. Tierny pulls a key quote from the report featured in the M.I.T. International Review that can explain it much better than me:
Distance-decay theory states that as one goes further away from a precise location, there is an exponential decline in the turnover of species and a lower probability of finding the same composition of species. The theory of island biogeography states that large and close islands will have higher immigration rates and support more species with lower extinction rates than small isolated islands.
These theories can be applied over varying spatial scales to posit bin Laden’s current location based on his last reputed geographic location. Distance-decay theory would predict that he is closest to the point where he was last reported and, by extension, within a region that has a similar physical environment and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs).
They’ve even identified the building in which they think he could be hiding. It’s in Parachinar, Afghanistan, 12 miles from Tora Bora.
Fascinating.
What I’m wondering is how this relates to marketing.
Can we apply similar principles to products?
To distribution strategy recommendations?
How do definitions of geography shift when discussing the plane of ideas? Do trends behave in the same way? Do human connections and/or relationships decline exponentially the farther you get from the source? Or, does technology allow us to maintain the strength of this connection regardless of time and space?
I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Image: http://flickr.com/photos/1yen (CC)
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